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Syracuse did enough to secure an eight-point win over Boston College on Saturday, pushing the Orange above .500 in conference play. SU will host Louisville on Wednesday night, offering a chance to add another Quadrant 2 win to their resume.

Louisville rolled the Orange by 24 last season, but most of its top players are not back this season.

Here’s what to know about Syracuse(12-6, 6-5) before Wednesday night’s matchup:

All-time series

Louisville leads 19-10

Last time they played 

Syracuse traveled to Louisville on Feb. 19, 2020 and was blown out by the Cardinals 90-66. Louisville blitzed SU for 41 first-half points and 90 in total, which was the third-most points SU allowed all season. The Cardinals made 10-of-24 from 3 and exposed SU’s zone. Buddy Boeheim had 15 points, and Quincy Guerrier notched a double-double, but SU never led the game and trailed by as many as 29 in the second half.

KenPom odds 

KenPom gives Syracuse a 35% chance to beat the Cardinals on the road with a projected score of  72-68. 

The Louisville report

Last season, Louisville was one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the country, a major reason the Cardinals torched the Syracuse zone. This year, the Cardinals sit 257th in 3-point shooting percentage after ranking in the top 15 from beyond the arc last season. 

They don’t shoot a lot of 3s, instead choosing to take most of their shots from inside the arc. Since starting 4-0 in conference play, Chris Mack’s Cardinals have dropped three of their last seven games, including losses to Miami, Florida State and Clemson.

They have one of the most inexperienced rosters in the country, ranking 339th in experience. Their five top producers have been replaced by two freshmen, two sophomores and senior transfer point guard Carlik Jones. The Cardinals are also playing slower this season, ranking 299th in pace.

Louisville is taller this year than in years past, and the Cardinals are an above-average rebounding team. UofL is ranked 81st nationally in offensive rebounding rate. The Orange’s offense shouldn’t have many turnover issues, given that the Cardinals rank low in turnovers forced and Syracuse is top 40 in turnover rate offensively.

Louisville hasn’t played since Feb. 1 due to COVID-19 within the Cardinals program.

How Syracuse beats Louisville

In each of the Cardinals ACC losses, poor shooting was a major factor. Syracuse’s 2-3 zone has been criticized in games against Virginia and NC State after both teams scored with ease on the Orange. SU will need to force Louisville to be jump shooters on Wednesday night, something UofL has struggled to do consistently. Their guards will want to enter the lane and make plays from there, and the onus is on Buddy, Joe Girard III and Kadary Richmond to prevent dribble drives.

The Orange have to get to the free-throw line more than the Cardinals, too. Syracuse ranks eighth nationally in free-throw percentage and should make a more concerted effort to get to the line more. Louisville is mediocre when it comes to defensive foul and free-throw rates, so SU could earn some free points by attacking the rim more often.

Player to watch: Carlik Jones, Guard, No. 1

Jones is the primary ball handler and playmaker for Louisville. He ranks top 70 nationally in minutes played, is in the top 150 nationally in usage rate and is excellent at getting to the free-throw line. 

Jones isn’t much of a shooter — he’s made 31.1% of his 3s on 45 attempts for the season. But he’s taking 4.43 free throws per game and is the engine that makes the Cardinals’ offense go. He spent his first three years at Radford before transferring and is the most experienced player on an inexperienced roster. Jones ranks third in the ACC in points per game with 17.4 and third in assists per game at 4.9. 

Stat to know: 46.1

Louisville assists on just 46.1 of its made field goals, which is the lowest rate in the conference. The Cardinals prefer isolation offense and individual play over assists, while the Orange are the top ACC team in this stat. Jones is a great passer, but the rest of the UofL offense doesn’t rely on passing for points. The SU zone tends to force teams to create assists for offense, though, so how the Cardinals react to the zone could decide who wins an otherwise even matchup.

Published on February 16, 2021 at 6:30 pm

Contact Anthony: amdabbun@syr.edu | @AnthonyDabbundo